海洋热浪对西北太平洋柔鱼时空分布的影响

Impact of marine heatwave on the spatiotemporal distribution of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean

  • 摘要:
    目的 柔鱼作为短生命周期且对环境敏感的物种,其资源动态受极端气候事件的调控尚不明确。本研究旨在阐明西北太平洋海洋热浪对柔鱼资源丰度及时空分布的影响。
    方法 本研究基于 1995—2020 年 5—11 月西北太平洋柔鱼作业海域网格化渔业数据与海洋环境数据,应用季节动态阈值法识别海洋热浪事件,量化热浪累积强度并划分热浪与非热浪状态;精准匹配时空对齐样本后,采用方差膨胀因子(VIF)筛选独立环境变量,构建参数优化的提升回归树模型,解析海洋热浪和环境因子对柔鱼资源丰度和时空分布的影响机制,并根据模型空间输出揭示柔鱼核心栖息海域和时空变化规律。
    结果 累积强度呈现显著的月际波动特征,其变化趋势与柔鱼资源丰度呈现强烈的正相关(r = 0.858),相关性达显著水平(p = 0.013)。提升回归树模型进一步分析表明,累积强度对资源丰度表征具有一定的生态指示作用,其相对重要性为 3.427%。环境因子响应曲线显示,热浪状态下柔鱼资源丰度明显高于非热浪状态,且随累积强度的升高呈小幅度上升趋势。模型推算结果表明,42 °~ 45 °N、150 °~ 170 °E 海域为柔鱼资源丰度高值区,其资源丰度与热浪累积强度在 5—11 月呈现出时空耦合特征。
    结论 海洋热浪的发生更有利于柔鱼的聚集,形成高丰度的柔鱼渔区。在当前生物学数据相对薄弱的条件下,本研究构建的分析框架为其它海洋生物与极端热浪事件互作机制研究提供了可推广的研究范式。研究成果为柔鱼种群的资源评估及可持续管理策略的制定提供了科学依据。

     

    Abstract: Ommastrephes bartramii, a short-lived cephalopod species, is highly sensitive to environmental variability. The Northwestern Pacific Ocean serves as its primary habitat, where frequent marine heatwaves (MHWs) significantly impact population dynamics. However, the mechanisms underlying these impacts remain poorly understood. The study aims to elucidate the impact mechanisms of MHWs on the resource abundance and spatiotemporal distribution of O. bartramii in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. The study utilizes gridded fishery and environmental data spanning May to November from 1995 to 2020 across O. bartramii fishing grounds in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. A seasonal dynamic threshold method was employed to identify MHW events, quantify cumulative intensity, and distinguish between MHW and non-MHW periods. Following precise spatiotemporal alignment of samples, variance inflation factor analysis was conducted to screen independent environmental variables. A boosted regression tree (BRT) model was developed to analyze the impact mechanisms of MHWs and environmental factors on O. bartramii abundance and distribution, and to reveal core habitats and their spatiotemporal dynamics. The cumulative intensity exhibited significant intermonth variability, showing a strong positive correlation with O. bartramii resource abundance (r = 0.858, p = 0.013). The BRT model revealed that cumulative intensity served as an ecological indicator of O. bartramii resource abundance, accounting for 3.427% of the model's relative importance. Response curves demonstrated significantly higher O. bartramii resource abundance under MHW conditions, with a slight increasing trend under higher cumulative intensity. Model results identified high-abundance regions within 42 °-45 °N、150 °-175 °E, revealing significant spatiotemporal coupling between O. bartramii abundance and cumulative intensity from May to November. The occurrence of MHWs is more conducive to the aggregation of O. bartramii, promoting the formation of high-abundance fishing grounds. Given the scarcity of biological data, the analytical framework proposed in this study provides a generalizable approach for investigating MHW-marine organism interactions. These findings offer scientific support for O. bartramii stock assessment and sustainable fishery management strategies.

     

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